In August, the Toronto real estate market looked like it was finally tightening up, but as we look at the preliminary September numbers, I have to admit: I spoke too soon. Sales have dropped nearly 30% compared to last year, and inventory is lingering on the market longer than expected.

Let's look into the September reality check for the GTA housing market (Toronto, York, Peel, and Durham). We look beyond the surface-level average price of $1 million to answer a crucial question: With the market slowing down, who is actually buying homes right now?

Using new data from Teranet, we break down the surprising buyer demographics—including why first-time home buyers now make up 36.5% of non-condo purchases, while move-up buyers are largely staying on the sidelines. Whether you are a first-time buyer looking for an opportunity, or a seller trying to understand your competition, here is exactly what you need to know about this fall market shift.

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So much for the fall market recovery...